Nuclear deterrence
Nuclear deterrence is the strategy of preventing an attack by convincing an adversary that the response could include nuclear force. It relies on the idea that the expected costs of aggression would be unacceptable.
Archived edition
The Seimas on Wednesday opened debate on a constitutional amendment that would remove Lithuania’s ban on the deployment of nuclear weapons. The Kremlin answered with nuclear threats, and the argument in Vilnius has been sharpened by Emmanuel Macron’s March call for a European nuclear deterrent. Parliament’s legal affairs committee backed the draft a day earlier, and lawmakers are also due on Thursday to approve an updated national security strategy. Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said over the past day that Russian attacks on European states could intensify and move beyond hybrid methods.
Police are questioning a key witness after a shocking kidnapping on a road near Kaunas. In politics, the Democratic Union said it would not back the Finance Ministry's proposed changes to lottery taxation.
sources: tv3.lt, 15min.lt, lrt.lt, delfi.lt, vz.lt, lrytas.lt
Nuclear deterrence is the strategy of preventing an attack by convincing an adversary that the response could include nuclear force. It relies on the idea that the expected costs of aggression would be unacceptable.
On September 10, the Seimas opened its autumn session with a bill that would strike from the constitution the clause barring the deployment of nuclear weapons in Lithuania. A day earlier, the parliamentary legal affairs committee backed the move, and the debate has been sharpened by Emmanuel Macron's March proposal for a European nuclear deterrence concept. Lawmakers are also due to approve an updated national security strategy. (lrt.lt)
Why it matters
The issue reaches beyond parliament. It affects how Lithuania frames deterrence, how Klaipėda can be used in a crisis, and how tightly the country aligns its rules with NATO partners. (lrt.lt)
Who benefits
Supporters of a more flexible NATO deterrence posture stand to gain, while defenders of an absolute constitutional ban and port operators seeking clear rules face the downside. (lrt.lt)
What's next
The Seimas is set to vote on the constitutional change and the updated national security strategy during the autumn session. (lrt.lt)
On Sept. 2, Dmitry Medvedev said Germany’s accusations against Russia warranted a “serious military response,” sharpening Kremlin threats aimed at Europe. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys told Euronews the same week that Russian attacks on EU states are likely to intensify, and that the threat is no longer purely hybrid. Lithuania has also framed the risk around drones, sabotage and critical infrastructure, with President Gitanas Nauseda backing Germany after a drone incident on Sept. 1. The message from Vilnius is that the Baltic flank should expect more pressure, not less.
Why it matters
The immediate impact is on Lithuania’s airspace, energy grid and communications, because those are the assets most exposed to sabotage and drone activity. NATO’s eastern flank, especially the Baltic states, will have to spend more on surveillance, air defence and site protection.
Military aircraft are flying over the Švenčionys and Vilnius region because NATO and Lithuanian units are in live exercises there. The drill, Strong Griffin 26, includes the Lithuanian ANBO drone capability and covers tasks from reconnaissance to counter-drone warfare. Units and equipment were moved into the region from Klaipėda on Sept. 2-6. Residents can expect low-flying aircraft noise and heavier military traffic.
Why it matters
The noise and lower flight paths will affect residents in Švenčionys, Vilnius and nearby districts, while military convoys will be visible on local roads. The drill is also testing how quickly Lithuanian forces can operate with NATO partners and drone units.
On September 10, ESO’s board approved chief executive Renaldas Radvila’s request to step down. His last day will be September 30, and finance and administration head Audrius Ruseckas will take over in an acting role from October 1. The move follows criticism over the slow restoration of power after the August 22 storm, which disrupted supply for more than 268,000 customers. ESO has also started the search for a new chief. (lrytas.lt)
Why it matters
For households and firms hit by the storm, the leadership change matters because regulators and ministers are now demanding faster repairs and stronger grid resilience. The boardroom shake-up puts pressure on ESO and its owner Ignitis Group to prove it can restore power faster during future emergencies. (archyvai.lrt.lt)
A group of Lithuanian troops has headed to the Ukrainian front, with the journey tracked at close range. The headline points to first contact with the realities of war and to how newcomers brace for that step. The immediate issue is whether they are ready for the pace, discipline and risk that await them on arrival. The next question is what role they will take on at the front and how long they are expected to stay.
Why it matters
Ukrainian forces and their support network gain extra manpower, while the Lithuanian military gets another test of readiness and field experience under combat conditions. The immediate risk falls on the newcomers, who will be operating in a front-line environment.
In Vilnius, prosecutor Redas Savickas is set to ask for sentences for Erika Švenčionienė, Kazimieras Juraitis and 76-year-old Valerij Ivanov in a case over aiding a foreign state against Lithuania. The three are tied to 2022 trips to Belarus and appearances on Russian and Belarusian media, while Ivanov is a former leader of the pro-Soviet Jedinstvo group. The case also includes allegations of public approval of Soviet crimes and their denial or gross minimisation. After the prosecutor's closing request, the court is expected to hear the defence before moving toward a verdict.
Why it matters
The case matters to prosecutors and security agencies because it tests where political speech ends and active support for a hostile state begins. The verdict could set a benchmark for other cases involving public messaging and propaganda-linked travel.
The European Commission approved another 6.1 billion euros of military support for Ukraine yesterday. The money will fund air defences, missiles, ammunition and radars, and Brussels said Kyiv can also buy some weapons outside the EU, including Patriot missiles.
In Kyiv today, Russian jet drones hit two Ukrnafta gas stations. Two people were killed and six injured at one site, and the company said both damaged facilities were civilian sites that it would rebuild. Another station in the same network was struck in Kyiv yesterday without casualties because staff and customers had been evacuated. Ukraine's General Staff said today that Russian forces lost 1,490 soldiers over the previous 24 hours, after reporting 1,520 losses a day earlier. Kyiv's daily tally also continues to show losses in Russian armour, artillery, drones and fuel vehicles.
US and European media reported yesterday that Donald Trump is considering a bigger role for CIA director John Ratcliffe in talks on ending Russia's war in Ukraine. The CIA publicly denied that account, and Ratcliffe's secret trip to Moscow and a separate visit to Kyiv by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner produced no deal. Kyiv is now looking to September and October for another diplomatic push and has pointed to the UN General Assembly in New York as a possible venue.
Lithuania's threat assessments say Russia's military build-up remains the main security factor for the country, while Belarus is expanding nuclear infrastructure near the Lithuanian border. Earlier this summer the Kremlin said Lithuania would not be safer if it lifted its ban on hosting nuclear weapons, and officials in Vilnius now treat such messaging as a routine part of deterrence planning and intelligence work.
Vladimir Putin said deploying European troops to Ukraine would amount to direct war between Europe and Russia. Dmitry Medvedev also threatened Lithuania, saying it would disappear from the world map in the event of a military conflict. Poland said it would allocate 3.5-4 billion euros for a permanent U.S. base.
sources: 15min.lt, vz.lt, delfi.lt, lrt.lt, tv3.lt, lrytas.lt
Patriot is a US-made air and missile defence system designed to intercept aircraft, cruise missiles and some ballistic missiles. Ukraine uses it to protect cities and critical infrastructure from Russian strikes.
Lithuania’s 2026 threat assessment says Russia’s military build-up remains the main security factor for the country, while Belarus keeps expanding nuclear power infrastructure near the Lithuanian border. Reuters reported on July 7 that the Kremlin said Lithuania would not be safer if it lifted its ban on hosting nuclear weapons. The comment fits Moscow’s long-running nuclear messaging toward NATO’s eastern flank and its efforts to deter allies from backing Ukraine more heavily. For Vilnius, the issue is now part of routine defence and intelligence planning, not just a hypothetical warning.
Why it matters
For defence planners in Lithuania and NATO’s Baltic posture, it means more pressure on air defence, intelligence and crisis planning. For Lithuanian policymakers, it narrows the room to debate nuclear deterrence without triggering a sharp response from Moscow.
Who benefits
Russia’s and Belarus’s propaganda apparatus benefits from the fear narrative, while Lithuania’s defence planners and advocates of nuclear deterrence lose room to maneuver.
What's next
Lithuania’s government and parliament will keep using the 2026 threat assessment in defence-budget and regional deterrence decisions, with the immediate policy question being whether air defence and civil protection spending is tightened.
The European Commission approved another 6.1 billion euros in military support for Ukraine on Sept. 10, funding air defences, missiles, ammunition and radars. The tranche comes from the EU’s 90 billion euro Ukraine loan, which the bloc agreed earlier this year and is being paid out in instalments through 2026 and 2027. Brussels also said Kyiv can buy some weapons outside the bloc, including Patriot missiles. The move follows warnings earlier this month that Ukraine still faces a large funding gap this year and next.
Why it matters
For Ukraine’s air defences, the money means more cash for interceptors and radar at a time when Russian strikes continue to hit cities and infrastructure. It also feeds new orders into Europe’s defence industry and eases some pressure on Kyiv’s strained budget.
Ukraine’s General Staff said on Sept. 11 that Russian forces lost 1,490 soldiers over the previous 24 hours. A day earlier, it put the daily toll at 1,520 and said Russia’s total combat losses since Feb. 24, 2022 had reached 1,502,390 personnel. The latest updates also show steady attrition in Russian armour, artillery, drones and fuel vehicles. Kyiv publishes the figures as part of its daily war tally, which tracks pressure across the front line. (ukrinform.net)
Why it matters
Heavy daily losses strain Russia’s ability to sustain offensive operations and keep feeding the front with trained manpower. They also matter for Ukraine’s defence, because every extra hit to armour, artillery and drones reduces the scale and tempo of Russian pressure. (ukrinform.net)
Russian jet drones hit two Ukrnafta gas stations in Kyiv on Sept. 11, killing two people and injuring six at one site, prosecutors said. A day earlier, another strike on a Kyiv station in the same network caused no injuries because staff and customers had already been evacuated. Ukrnafta said both targets were civilian facilities and vowed to repair the damage and keep serving customers. (apnews.com)
Why it matters
For Kyiv residents, strikes on gas stations are both a direct safety threat and a disruption to fuel supplies used for commuting, deliveries and city services. Repeated hits also force operators to spend more on security and repairs, raising costs across the local economy. (apnews.com)
On Sept. 10, US and European outlets reported that Donald Trump is weighing a bigger diplomatic role for CIA Director John Ratcliffe in efforts to end Russia's war on Ukraine, but the agency publicly denied the story. Ratcliffe's secret Aug. 25 trip to Moscow had already signaled a fresh push, including warnings to the Kremlin about NATO and talk of reviving negotiations, yet it produced no breakthrough. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner then went to Kyiv on Sept. 6 for talks that were described as encouraging but inconclusive. Kyiv says it wants to use September and October to restart diplomacy, with the UN General Assembly later this month emerging as a possible next venue. (kyivindependent.com)
Why it matters
For Kyiv and European allies, the key issue is not the personnel shuffle but whether Washington is moving toward a coherent negotiating track. Until that is clear, Ukraine has less leverage to judge the terms of any ceasefire, security guarantees or broader peace deal. (kyivindependent.com)
Lithuania’s security debate has sharpened again around whether Russia could try a symbolic, high-impact attack on Lithuanian soil. Defence minister Dovilė Šakalienė said this week that Moscow’s actions are coldly calculated, pointing to drones, cyberattacks and other probes against critical infrastructure in Europe. Lithuania has already reinforced protection at strategic sites, which shows officials are focused on sabotage scenarios as well as battlefield threats from Ukraine. The political question now is whether the Kremlin would risk a one-off strike meant to shock the public and force a change in security posture. (archyvai.lrt.lt)
Why it matters
Energy, telecoms and transport would be the first sectors exposed if Moscow tried to paralyse daily life with a short, sharp strike. For residents, that means tighter security around infrastructure and a heavier operational burden for state agencies. (vrm.lrv.lt)
Houthi forces seized Yemen’s Red Sea port city of Mokha yesterday and moved closer to the Bab al-Mandab strait. Yemeni military sources say they also reached the strategic Hanish islands, while government forces are pulling back toward Dhubab opposite Perim island. Saudi airstrikes later hit Mokha airport as the Houthi advance extended their reach along one of the world’s most important shipping lanes.
In Gaza, Hamas said Mohammed Abdel Salam al-Yazouri was killed by Israel on Thursday evening, removing one of the group’s most senior military figures in the south. He sat on Hamas’ higher leadership council and commanded the Khan Younis Brigade. Another Israeli strike in Gaza killed a family of four.
Vladimir Putin arrived in New Delhi today for the 18th BRICS summit. India deployed about 30,000 police and paramilitary personnel across the capital ahead of talks with Narendra Modi on defence, energy and trade. In Brussels, EU counter-terrorism coordinator Bartjan Wegter warned of a youth-driven online extremist threat linked to the network known as The COM, with police identifying about 4,340 related web addresses.
British intelligence now estimates that nearly 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence said in August that Moscow could try to mobilise another 300,000 men after the September parliamentary elections.
Houthi militants seized control of a strait vital to global shipping. Ahead of the BRICS summit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Vladimir Putin and Iran's president and again urged Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
sources: lrt.lt, 15min.lt, delfi.lt, lrytas.lt
BRICS is a grouping of major emerging economies that began with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and later expanded. It serves as a platform for political and economic coordination outside Western-led institutions.
British intelligence now puts Russian dead in Ukraine at close to 500,000, a toll that reflects Moscow's willingness to absorb heavy losses to keep the offensive going. Recent reporting from LRT said Russia has been scrambling to find fresh recruits, with July the deadliest month for Russian troops this year. Ukrainian intelligence said in August that Russia may try to mobilise another 300,000 men after the September parliamentary elections. The war is now being shaped as much by manpower exhaustion as by battlefield gains.
Why it matters
Russian regions and families bear the cost, with more deaths and fresh call-ups meaning more strain on the labour force and on state payouts to servicemen's relatives. For Ukraine, it means the Kremlin may be able to sustain pressure on the front for longer, but only at an ever higher human cost.
Who benefits
Russia's military command and defence industry gain room to keep the war going, while mobilised families, regional labour markets and Ukrainian defenders on the front line lose out.
What's next
The next key test is whether Russia steps up mobilisation and recruiting after the September parliamentary elections, which Ukrainian military intelligence is watching closely.
Houthi fighters seized the Yemeni port city of Mokha on Sept. 10, pushing into the city and its port after a fast ground assault, according to residents and Yemeni officials. Mokha sits about 75 km from the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and a route vital to global shipping. Saudi airstrikes later hit Mokha airport, underscoring the risk of the move drawing in outside powers. Analysts said the takeover gives the Houthis more leverage over Red Sea shipping and over talks on Yemen’s war. (apnews.com)
Why it matters
Shipping companies and oil exporters now face more risk near one of the world’s tightest maritime chokepoints. If the Houthis deepen their grip on the Bab el-Mandeb corridor, insurers, carriers and energy buyers could see higher costs and more delays on routes into Europe and Asia. (axios.com)
Iran-aligned Houthis seized Yemen's Red Sea port city of Mocha on Sept. 10 and pushed toward the strategic Hanish islands near Bab al-Mandab, according to Yemeni military sources. The move brings them closer to one of the world's most important shipping chokepoints, which handles about 12% of global oil and goods flows. Saudi airstrikes later hit the Mocha airport, while a Houthi spokesman said Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab shipping remained safe. Yemeni government forces are pulling back toward Dhubab, directly across from Perim island.
Why it matters
Shipping lines and oil traders face a higher risk premium, because every Houthi advance near Bab al-Mandab raises the odds of route diversions, insurance costs and disruption to Red Sea traffic. Those costs can filter into fuel and import prices across Europe, the Mediterranean and Asia.
Hamas' armed wing said on Sept. 11, 2026, that Mohammed Abdel Salam al-Yazouri was killed by Israel in Gaza on Thursday evening. He sat on the group's higher leadership council and commanded the Khan Younis Brigade, making him one of Hamas' most senior military figures in southern Gaza. The kill comes as Israel has stepped up strikes across the enclave in recent days. It also leaves open how much room Hamas has to reshuffle command or shift in ceasefire talks.
Why it matters
Civilians in Gaza and families of hostages are directly affected because Israeli strikes are continuing even as ceasefire talks remain in play. The higher the Hamas commander killed, the greater the risk that negotiations on a truce and hostage release become even harder to revive.
On September 8 in Brussels, EU counter-terrorism coordinator Bartjan Wegter warned that a new kind of extremist violence is spreading online among young people, with police identifying about 4,340 web addresses linked to the community known as The COM. He said the threat is different from the 9/11-era al-Qaeda model because recruitment, grooming and attack planning now happen largely in encrypted online spaces. EU officials said 45 terrorist attacks were recorded across 10 member states last year, none of them mass-casualty events. Wegter also said AI tools are being used to recruit, spread extremist ideas and help prepare attacks. (apnews.com)
Why it matters
For police and schools in Europe, the problem is harder to spot because many suspects have no prior record and operate inside encrypted online groups. That pushes national authorities to monitor digital spaces more aggressively and intervene sooner with young people being drawn into violence. (apnews.com)
Vladimir Putin arrived in New Delhi on Sept. 11, 2026, for the 18th BRICS summit, set for Sept. 12-13. India has put roughly 30,000 police and paramilitary personnel on summit duty, with road closures and other security restrictions across the capital. Putin is expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with defence, energy and trade on the agenda. The summit opens under the shadow of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and under fresh strains in U.S.-China relations.
Why it matters
Ukraine, Russia’s oil sales to India and India’s ties with Washington all feed into the bargaining power on display in New Delhi. The key test is whether BRICS can produce a common line on war, trade and payments or remain a stage for bilateral deals.